Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 335.09

-0.5%

11:46 AM EST

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To: John Trader who wrote (46080)	5/2/2001 8:56:48 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) of 70976

John, A trip back even to naz 1600 would be a disaster for the economy. As i have stated I expect this rally to get us to the mid 2000's maybe as high as 2800 but then it will be difficult again as the next round of tech earnings takes its toll. I believe we have been shaken by this downturn more than the others because we allowed ourselves to be sucked into the dot com hype even though we did not invest in dot coms. We thought infrasrtructure plays were immune to a dot bomb situation. That was one of my top 10 dumbest beliefs of all time. It ranks up there with the flat earth society. BUT, higher valuations for stocks will stay for at least another 5-10 years for the demographic arguments we discussed. Amat is a perfect example(so far) of a stock that refuses to make the lows predicted by Cary, Jacob et al which would be expected viewing the last cycle. So where are we--another couple of bad quarters. But eventually technology will drive us to new products and guess what--no inventory problems then and then renewed high growth rates for many tech co's. As far as nasdaq 5000, i have no idea when that will happen again but it doesnt matter at all.. I calculate that my portfolio shoud be back to naz 5K levels at naz 3500 and i could see happening some time in 2002. So bubble naz 5K should not concern you at all. It's a stock pickers market and with the right investments and a little perserverence, we should do just fine. CAVEAT--If for some reason nasdaq goes back to 1600 or lower all bets are off. I am now worrying about the cost of gas. Chevron order $3 pricing signs yesterday. High energy is inflationary and serves as a tax on the consumer so it might negate the tax cuts and force AG to worry more about inflation. I agree with Cheney that clinton blew it as far as energy and that new production is very important. I disagree with how he minimized conservation. If every family could be a little more careful by planning shopping excursions better, carpooling more effectively, especially this summer some of the pressure might be taken off prices.

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