<FONT COLOR=RED>re: MANI! ARE YOU COMPLETELY NUTS????
Please do excuse my midwestern influenced, understated manner of expressing that which my true feelings should openly indicate. I feel much more strongly than the above and repeated declaration may imply. The issue is not whether AMD shares will decline, possibly sharply and in the short term. The shares probably will. What worries me, for your sake, is the enormous and time wise unpredictable upside that is extremely obvious to me (I may very well be wrong in my timing...I have a long history of displaying extraordinarily poor short term timing). The market evaluation of the shares, in my estimation, in no way properly discounts that which AMD has immediately and in the mid term obviously coming down the technology pike. ALL of it is is in the public domain but is not yet adequately discounted in the current stock price. None of ANALysts is prepared yet to reflect, in their publications, that which their real expectations are (However they do want to keep their ill deserved and extremely well paying jobs.). There are some very telling inconsistencies that strongly imply the real disparities that differentiate that which they are publishing (in writing) and that which they are verbally transmitting to their clients. Having been one of them, a very long time ago, let me convey to you what must be taken to be a riddle with a very obvious answer (at least to me.) For several of them (the ANALysts) despite the fact that AMD is now closing rapidly on its 12 month price objectives for the stocks performance they are yet to downgrade the stock (though some of them have.) This movement should result in very prompt downgrades. The most myopic of them probably are conveying such to their preferred clients. There is reason, in the public domain to suspect that, at least, several are not. This is all happening while AMD is penetrating that which should, in my view, be historic and abundant overhead supply.
In my mind the key to this riddle is exteremely obvious and simple and in the public domain. The mobile Palomino has been shipping to major OEMs on schedule and in possibly vastly increasing numbers. Why is it not yet introduced? AMD, though right on schedule, has no motivation to pressure the down stream suppliers to launch the end products any sooner than a perfect launch is possible. Infrastructure and final shake down issues are in all probability being addressed. The final end product is, in my view, a generation to a generation and a half ahead of the peEweEiiI mobilE fiasco. Hence, there is no impetus for any premature "paper" launch. AMD can take all of the time it wants and still be assured of an enormous market position advantage.
This market advantage should, in my view, translate into a very rapid increase in AMDs ASPs and devastation to inteLs mobile marketing effots of a much more primitive offering. So far inteLs premature launch has served mainly to wet the publics appitite for a product that iT cannot supply in adequate numbers and AMD is emerging in cofident readiness for.
Just my notso humble opinion.
Patient Regards,
DARBES |
