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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here

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To: MikeM54321 who wrote (11179)	5/2/2001 9:45:59 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) of 12823

I can absolutely guarantee you that I am completely unqualified to analyze one of Maurice's rants <g>. Of course, not being qualified has never stopped me before ;-).... There is no way Europe is going to go to a CDMA standard, is there? Or is this something that need not be considered until ten years (my estimate) or more out in the 3G future. I believe you said that CDMA2000 is the equivalent of UMTS, but couldn't quite remember. If so, what are your personal feelings on Europe's roadmap to 3G? Europe is absolutely going to a CDMA standard....as long as they can get it to work. The other name for the UMTS standard is W-CDMA. Both W-CDMA and CDMA2000 are based on an underlying spread-spectrum technology, but with some important differences. In terms of performance, they are basically similair....though you would probably get arguments against that from both sides. - W-CDMA uses a slightly higher spreading signal than CDMA2000 (3.84MHz vs. 3.68MHz). Supposedly, the difference between these two rates can be overcome....but the primary reason for the difference was to create an imcompatability. - CDMA2000 uses GPS to create a synchronous lock between the basestations. W-CDMA has gone with an asynchronous approach. This approach will likely make it harder for W-CDMA to create a soft-handoff between basestations. I think the reason for this is more legitimate. There are countries out there that probably do not want their cell-phone network dependent on the US military. It remains to be seen how difficult the implementation of the asynchronous approach will be....however, the delay by NTT of the start of their W-CDMA network is not a good sign. I know that their is widespread pessimism as to the start of all 3G services....but if you cant buy a 1x handset by the first quarter of next year from PCS/Verizon, I will be very surprised. Yesterday, the smallest operator in Korea launched 1x in 97 cities. I think that this qualifies as a nation-wide roll-out. Both handsets and networks seem ready to go... All of which brings me to Maurice's post. He is trying to figure out why no European operator is willing to jump ship to CDMA2000 (since there is no assurance when W-CDMA will be ready). I think the primary reasons are two-fold. - Qualcomm (and Qualcomm investors) seem to have underestimated how important the standards process is to the rest of the world. Nokia and Ericsson simply did a better job than Qualcomm in getting the entire world behind the UMTS standard. Once a couple of operators got on board, the rest followed like lemmings. - Qualcomm has never created a CDMA/GSM chipset. They are promising delivery next year....but that is a long way off. These would be essential for any operator to seriously consider installing 1x into either existing or new spectrum. The operators wouldnt be able to provide complete CDMA coverage for quite a while...so would need to depend on dual-mode handsets. No operator wants to stick their necks out and make a mistake....W-CDMA is the safe choice for GSM operators. Each operator will get their equipment working at around the same time (even if it takes 4-5 years) and noone is likely to have an advantage. It remains to be seen how the amount of debt that European operators have taken on will effect the situation. Some operators dont have that much time to wait.... Slacker....who is getting as wordy as Maurice.

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