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Technology Stocks : American Power Conversion

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To: Boots who wrote (1452)	6/11/1997 4:40:00 PM
From: Bob G	of 2574

Boots <<Now, for my reservation about First Call's .28 estimate: APC has consistently stated it expects growth in the 20% to 25% range for the year. It even stated the expected percentages for each quarter (a number I don't know off hand). First Call's .28 is a full 40% above 1996 second quarter results, a quarter, which at the time, had record revenues. 40% seems like APC is being set-up for a fall.>> *********************************************************** The numbers look reasonable to me and APC! Using APC's own numbers I calculated the following: per APC Revenue Growth Rate 20-25%......Middle 22.5% per APC Revenue distribution by Qtr 20% 23% 28% 29% Last years revenue 706.9mm X 1.225 = 865.95mm Last years earnings/share .98 X 1.225 = $1.20 assuming a steady profit margin the earnings distribution should track the revenue distribution following 1st QTR, Revenue Q1=172 Q2=199 Q3=243 Q4=251 1997=865mm Earnings/sh Q1=22 Q2=25.5 Q3=31.7 Q4=35.2 1997=114.4 Another opinion: S&P estimates 1997 at $1.20 (22,26,34,38)

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