velo, with all due respect, I don't see how anyone can predict "turn dates" based on fibonaccis, super nachos, or whatever over a long period of time.
There are always unpredictable news events that trigger reversals in either direction such as rate cuts, rate increases, wars, acts of God, terrorism, employment reports, elections, etc., etc.
When events such as these unexpectedly occur, I would think all bets are off and you have to re-evaluate any technical pronostications in light of how the market reacts to such events and what kind of momentum is created. I would also argue that this approach could not possibly take into account fundamentals, profitability and consumer sentiment. Apparently, the market "thinks" that fundamentals will start improving within 6-9 months.
From what I've read over the last few weeks, no offense, but you've been completely off based on what TA/charting has been telling you.
Over the short term, TA may be a different story and probably has its place.
Anyway, just one man's opinion. |
