SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 338.73+0.7%Dec 10 4:00 PM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (1112)5/2/2001 5:57:36 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (3) of 10065
 
Wally: I think the economy in the US is stabilizing but there are no signs of renewed growth. But I believe that Asia and Europe are going through a process of rapid deceleration now and in the forseeable future. I think this will become the headline story soon enough. Channel checks of CSCO show US order picture is stabilizing. But it gets only a third or so from these parts.. The rest is from overseas. And I expect that part of the business is going down the tube. Now on top of this, there are the layoffs in this country that just keep coming. Sorry, but consumer confidence does not rise in a layoff environment.

It will take some time for the rate reductions to filter through the economy. But it will take longer for them to impact markets overseas. European concern with inflation will just make it worse as they will be too slow to reduce rates. They will do so when it is too late much like the Fed.

I am treating this current rally as a bear market rally and nothing more. If there is no retest, then there is no bottom in place as far as I am concerned. There has been no retest. I don't see a final bottom until late summer or fall at the earliest. And I could not tell you from what level. But I would rather be in a market where I have identified a bottom (at whatever level) than to pretend that I have seen one only to discover otherwise later.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News