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Non-Tech : QQQ - Nasdaq 100 Trust

QQQ 611.67

-1.9%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: striper68 who wrote (537)	5/3/2001 5:13:09 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) of 840

I have been out of tech stocks for 4 years waiting for the bubble to pop.....I can't see any greater opportunity than when the bubble breaks and the fear is greatest at that point. It looks like the trend reversal has come and we should move up from now on. Load up and hang on. Hmmm.....gotta laugh on that one. Out of tech stocks for 4 years and now you are suggesting to load up and hang on? What did you miss in terms of compounded returns (not counting dividends) on the technology side over that time frame? May 1, 1997 to May 1, 2001 means you missed the 75% index run of the Nasdaq from 1270 to 2220. No big deal, but let's look under the hood to see what compounding does through cycles and bubbles. A few well known technology stocks and the bubble misses since then: Intel is up 63% Microsoft is up 133% Cisco is up 237% Oracle is up 282% i2 is up 303% Applied Materials is up 304% Dell is up 380% EMC is up 836% AOL is up 1,307% Siebel is up 2,019% Average return of 586%. Toss out the top and the bottom two and the average return was 390%. (No dividends included in the calculation) A mix of well known non tech during the same 4 year time frame? Wal-Mart is up 277% Home Depot is up 265% The Gap is up 219% GE is up 168% Pfizer is up 178% Citigroup is up 118% American Express is up 104% Phillip Morris up 59% Boeing is up 33% Caterpillar is up 23% Average return for the group is 127%. Toss out the top and the bottom two and the average return was 141%. (No dividends included in the calculation) Just from looking at these 20 very well known stocks and using the 4 year time span of May 1 1997 to May 1 2001, we could debate about the "relief" one feels by being so fortunate to miss the 'bubble' during those 4 years. The question is this: What do you see now that is such a compelling reason to load up on tech and hang on that you somehow missed on May 1 of 1997? BB

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