Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 271.02

+0.9%

10:21 AM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (46168)	5/3/2001 6:40:22 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) of 70976

ST trading: Well, the next time NVLS hits 51, I'm going to sell my puts and take my losses. NVLS and AMAT seem to have established a new, higher trading range. If I get out at the bottom of that range (basically, a bit higher than the top of the old range), I can do it with small losses. I'm tired of fighting the market and the Fed. For a month now, the market has been ignoring bad (sometimes very bad) news, and magnifying the slightest vague hints of good news. I have no idea when this is going to end, but I'm getting this bad feeling (bad, for someone holding a bunch of puts) that we are in for an extended bear rally, akin to the May-to-September 2000 bear rally. I see this rally caused by: 1. the false hope that declining inventories signals the end of the bear market 2. massive liquidity infusions by the Fed 3. Fed rate cuts I see this rally ended by: 1. declining end-consumer demand feeding back up the supply chain 2. inflation over 4% forcing the Fed to stop helping the market.

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