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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner

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To: anon who wrote (8977)	5/3/2001 11:33:32 PM
From: Tom Hua	Read Replies (3) of 19633

lip, my prognosis is that Naz will be in the red all day tomorrow, not even a brief moment of green, I don't know what early pre-market will be but I think it'll turn red from the moment the employment number is released at 8:30 AM to the closing bell. As a matter of fact, I think tomorrow marks a decisive reversal of the 4-week uptrend. Selling will continue next week. There will be no conventional rally into FOMC this time. Current consensus calls for job growth of 25,000 in April. I think the report will show job loss instead. My guess is net loss of no less than 40,000 jobs in April. Recent economic data was weaker than expected: - NAPM service sector declined to 47% vs expectation of 50.1%. That surprised everybody. - NAPM manufacturing was also weaker than expected. - Jobless claims on a 4-wk average basis were higher than expected, highest in almost a decade. - More than 150,000 layoffs announced in April As an amatuer, I just don't see how the pros think 25,000 non-farm jobs were created in April. Regards, Tom

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