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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.32

-5.6%

Jan 30 9:30 AM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (46146)	5/4/2001 1:29:08 AM
From: Robert O	of 70976

Only because you asked ASML, SVGI merger approved. Did anyone act on my ATTENTION SHOPPER post? SVGI is up from my posted $26+ to $34+. Ugggggg. I did post once on this subject as your post interested me. My post 45911 point talks about the WSJ (and others) reporting the incorrect 'merger' price as $1.6B when in fact we knew it was (and now is) lower. In any event the night of your post I started to create a Doc in Word shown below, but never decided to follow through or give the matter additanl thought as it was 'only' a 25% bump with what looked like a lot of downside risk at the time. Plus, when seemingly every long play I've made for the year has turned to shi*, one get's overly trigger shy. Should have went long with stop order... though a rejection of proposal probably would have gapped down SVGI sig. below stops. For posterity but no associated play: re: ASML/SVGI 'Merger' Ross, first of all I calculate 6.55 as the difference between $32.65. and the figure which SVGI closed at $26.10 yet maybe you were just eyeballing to say 5 bucks... but hey it's the difference between a 25% return and 'only' a 19% return. Anyway, the link ot the specifics of the deal are at, among other places, the ASML site: asml.com You are trying to think it through and so am I. You state: 'I suppose the surest thing to do is short X dollars of ASML, while buying an amount of SVGI that will turn into that many ASM shares. That should only lose if the deal does not go through, right?' Let's imagine what might happen based on either scenario of deal going though or not. If deal goes through ASML will probably drop in price since acquiring company is usually looked at as 'overpaying' while swallowed company will usually rise in price right up to the cash value (if all cash deal) or if stock get very close to formula (there may be some tiny wiggle room in either case because you never know until it actually happens). Note what actually happened to the stock price on Oct. 2nd when merger was announced: finance.yahoo.com SVGI initially goes up about 60% and ASML drops about 20%... from then on they tend to move in lock-step following the general formula (surprise) of asml share price x 1.286 = SVGI's price. march 5th 2001 close 29.4375 and 23.375 for asml jan 15 2001 36.5625 and 28.8125 april 16th 33 and 26.96 for asml and the gap is widening. Suddenly gap gets REAL wide now as possibility of no deal looms. A deal will pop SVGI's price but reduce ASML's. ... RO

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