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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 692.73+0.5%Jan 26 4:00 PM EST
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To: gfs_1999 who wrote (76480)5/4/2001 7:44:02 AM
From: t2  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
I thing hedge funds are still covering short position ahead tomorrow possible rally.

Yesterday's decline was nasty on the Nasdaq. I am just trying to figure out if this is just a short pause or the start of a decline that takes us below Naz2000 quickly.

Now we have the opportunity to see how much of a factor shorts have been in the decline yesterday. One would expect a late Friday rally if the shorts were a big factor yesterday.

A big rally, would also mean there was a lot of real buying during the decline yesterday.

Waiting to pick a direction. A better than expected employment report should be slightly positive---
Market expects non-farm payrolls to INCREASE by 25k
while Briefing.com believes it will be a DECLINE of 75k.
I am going to put my guess in there---a INCREASE of 100k.
(ie.out of work people got new jobs fast)

Any positive number and an unemployment rate in line with estimates should be enough to push the market up.

I am still leaning long but a little more cautious.

BTW--Find it hard to believe that people were willing to push Cisco up last few day so much and are not buying as it declines to better levels. If there is real buying interest, it should be back up quickly. If not, then it was basically just short covering and the market does not look good.
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