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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME

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To: Joe Smith who wrote (51257)5/4/2001 9:47:39 AM
From: Rande Is   of 57584
 
Joe, there is word floating around about re-testing those April 4 lows. And for any TRUE Bull Market to begin, history shows that those lows must first be tested. You are right that we went too far too fast. In one month, much pain was erased. . . .[though hopefully never forgotten].

And there is a newly revived fear of recession as the FED rate cuts came in too slow and too shallow to keep the U.S. economy from seeing any scars. There will be a few scars left from all of this. And we may not see a true economic turnaround until the latter half of the year. The interesting thing is that the market is responding to economic news. . . .when it was shrugging that very same news a matter of days ago.

And we are no longer moving on what we think the Fed will or should do next. So this market is actually healthier in many ways than the one we had a year or two ago. Today we look closer at earnings, fundamentals and earnings growth. . . .and we are more sensitive to economic indicators. That is not a bad place to be.

But yes, we do need to test those lows at some point in order to give confidence to all those ultra-conservative-pin-striped-vest-wearing-cigar-in-pocket-old-money-squeek-when-they-walk bulls.

Rande Is
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