re: the usual methods of measuring stock values becomes less usefull:
There is certainly lots of room for reasonable debate about whether we are or aren't still in a bear market, and why. This month-long rally could die tomorrow, or in 6 months. Or maybe we never go back to the lows of the last 6 months. I've been very surprised at how well consumer spending has held up, so far, in things like housing and cars. And there are certainly lots of signs that conditions are no longer in free-fall, that inventories are coming down, and this has convinced a lot of people that we will avoid a recession, and the bottom for stocks is in. I'm betting the other way, but I'm sufficiently unsure of myself to sell half my puts today.
I think the rules for measuring stock values are exactly the same now, for successful investors, as they were a hundred years ago. When the market temporarily ignores those rules, it just means that a lot of investors are acting irrationally. Over time, capital shifts from the irrational to the rational, from the ignorant to the informed. And, of those two good qualities, being rational is more important than being informed. Investors who have a Few Good Rules, and follow them consistently no matter what anyone else is doing, get rich eventually.
Two Good Rules are:
1. valuation always matters
2. reversion to the mean |
