Jay, sometimes, those turnips do not have a clear cut verdict, it does happen. Right now, they have two critical areas, the 2080, which we bounced from (the down turn was conditional, so far, on 2080 not holding, and the bias of some indicators was that it would not hold, so far, these indicators are wrong), and on top we have 2250, which if breached opens the way to 2388. Once more, the same indicators have 2250 as serving as a barrier repelling the market. The longer we stay in that range (2080 to 2250, and actually for next week, the bottom rises to 2095 or there about), the stronger will be the move on a breach of these levels. According to my count, we are already some 16 days that range (with the rising bottom, the last I cited, I believe, was at 2000 and we bounced from 2002). The 2250 must be on a closing basis. That is where the "rub" is, if it breaches during the day, I'll have to weigh what is the probability it will hold and close above that level, a tough one. Earlier this week, it looked as if it was going to go through, but it did not, we'll see what happens next week. If you are asking for a "probability of 2250 being breached" and the rally continuing, my indicators have a poor 25% on that. That is far from "no chance in hell"...(g).
Zeev |
