Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 328.51

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3:59 PM EST

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To: michael97123 who wrote (46242)	5/5/2001 11:37:16 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 70976

RE: " I survived the crash of 2000 and I am still a cockeyed optimist." Talk about humility! You "know" how far it overshot on both the high and low sides. You "know" the trading range for the next two years. News flash: Last year you knew NOTHING. This year you probably "know" the same. Optimism is the stock in trade for a broker or a salesman. It is not the be all and end all for investing. The "crash of 2000" has not formally issued a cease and desist announcement. The old saw was that three, 1/4 point reductions by the Fed resulted in a market rally. Do you wonder why we are about to have the fifth 1/2 point reduction in 4 1/2 months? The precedents that seem most likely to apply to the current situation are grim. The '29 crash and its aftermath, the Japanese decade long recession, and the '73-75 market crash come to mind. You discount the opinion of "bears", but I don't consider myself a bear. I am 58% in stock in the accounts set aside for equity investment. I have firm plans to commit the rest of my cash, GTC limit orders. I just think that it is extremely foolish to ignore the difficulty and danger in current high tech investing and to rely on market valuations that come from a community that was very recently comfortable with valuations that have proved to be totally absurd.

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