Hal,
Hi there and yes - I'm still around.
A couple of thoughts - not in any particular order.
Many good things in the past month seemed to have been wiped out in the last several days with the potential "de-listing" announcement. It may have been better for Bramson to mention and address that little annoyance in his Letter to the Stockholders - if, indeed, he had any forewarning or idea that the announcement was imminent. I have to think that he was aware of this potential problem or, at least, he should have been aware of it. All the benefits he derived from his letter (and I thought it was a good one) were overshadowed by that. Once again, the timing of events (planned or otherwise) sucked!
The market, as we all know, is a fair weather animal. It does not like cloudy days or the threat of bad weather - it takes cover in a hurry. That "de-listing" announcement certainly was viewed as a potential storm on the horizon. I think that problem could of and, in fact, should of been addressed in the Letter as a potential issue that the company was aware of and was taking steps to deal with. That would have been a good PR move that would have, in my opinion, mitigated some of the negative effects of the announcement.
Okay, I've vented a little. I've learned over the years that it's good to do that once in a while.
A couple other thoughts. On the ADS sale - appropriate that he is holding out for what he thinks is fair value. Storage is a segment that has value and selling ADS at a fire sale price would not be in the best long term interest of the company or its shareholders. Besides, it's making money so why not keep it until he gets fair value for it.
The debt issue - certainly linked to the ADS sale but, no question that there are other short term options available - in fact there are many. In my opinion, he will simply extend the term of the "loan". That seems to me to be the easiest and most logical thing to do. With ADS as the collateral there really is little risk to the note holders. Certainly enough value there to more than cover the risk.
The on-going business - iNextv. This is the meat and potatoes (in fact, it will be the only food left on the table) and will dictate how successful (or not) we will all ultimately be. Big revelation - this has to make money and a fair amount of it! They have now positioned themselves to concentrate on this one thing. All the other ventures (or misadventures, if you prefer) have been shut down. I think they have actually done a good job with their recent alliances and have positioned themselves appropriately to move forward - if and when streaming video becomes the "soup de jour".
Of course, it's the "if and the when" that is the crux of the matter. "If" it does happen, we should be in better position than most. "When" is more of a concern. How long can we last or hold out waiting for other things to happen that are beyond our control; i.e., the broadband issue, compelling content, etc.. It does appear that we have some superior technology (ITG II & ITG III) but putting a jet engine on a bi-wing plane doesn't make the plane fly better - a couple of other things have to be in place before that happens.
So having said all of the above - what did I do? Of course, I brought some more AXC. By God, I don't what it is about this company that keeps me hanging in there. I have never, never, never hung on to a company this long with this kind of performance. Maybe I've developed a kind of "martyr syndrome" for it - I don't know. There is potential here and maybe huge potential - I just hope that they can last long enough for it to be realized.
Lee |
