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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: D & G who wrote (842)6/11/1997 8:54:00 PM
From: William H Huebl   of 94695
 
Hi Donald,

The 1 3/4 move in BAY today AT WORST CASE put me back to where I bought in. With enough to cover broker's costs. That is why I go in the money and 3 months out... I am never able to win with those way out-of-the money, and 1 month expiration options... I guess wrong EVERY TIME. But for me in BAY, unless I see some major change in my indicators, I really have time to wait it out and relatively little risk of losing much capital. You really ought to get with Bernie's program and try what he suggests... NO BEGINNER SHOULD TRADE OPTIONS WHICH ARE NOT IN THE MONEY. NO BEGINNER SHOULD TRADE OPTIONS WHICH HAVE LESS THAN 2 -3 MONTHS TO EXPIRATION.

Now if you are a seasoned pro... then shame on you! It was your decision and your responsibility. If you are a beginner and didn't take the Sept 25 options... then the same applies.

I ALSO BELIEVE YOU PICKED THE WRONG OPTION: the one you picked is OUT OF THE MONEY AND NEAR IN EXPIRATION. I do not believe you picked the wrong stock... although I don't have EK in my database, if it's 200 day moving average is moving up, then EK would have been the wrong STOCK on which to buy put options.

So as far as I am concerned, you DID pick the right stock and yes you did pick the wrong option.

I cannot even attempt to calculate the tens of thousands of dollars I have lost trying to pick the EKs when the BAYs were there all along.

I am still bearish on BAY for the moment... tomorrow I may change my mind.

Regards,

Bill

PS This was a "lesson learned" from the iniversity of hard knocks. You may yet pull it out.
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