Recent progress has forced several revisions and an increase in complexity for the cost/revenue model! A very large increase in the syndication network population has brought the break-even date closer. Any further cost savings from the upcoming release of ITG3 would further shorten this much sought for date.
Assumptions:
1. The model is not over-optimistic, including modest broadband growth rates (15-20%), dropping patent royalties, etc.
2. It does NOT factor in a possible AOL syndication agreement (a mere rumor for now).
3. It DOES factor in most everything else, including ADS sale, patent royalties and all costs (not just distribution).
4. This model assumes ADS WILL be sold for 40 million before 2002, and that iNEXTV can get steady $55 CPM ad rates by early 2002.
5. The overall numbers have (IMO) a conservative bias, but I think they are decent approximations.
6. Really major possible positive/negative events have been excluded, like outside investments for percentage ownership agreements.
Excecutive Summary:
FY2002
Syndication Network Size: 115,659,000
Total Loss: ($5,866,000)
Loss per Share: ($0.10)
FY2003
Syndication Network Size: 138,790,000
Total Income: $22,941,477
Income per Share: $0.40
FY2005
Syndication Network Size: 166,548,000
Total Income: $215,714,000
Income per Share: $3.83
Overall, the model predicts breaking even sometime late next year-- the turning-point year. Next, the model forecasts 2003 will be entirely profitable-- the pay-off year; about at this time point, iNEXTV could become a serious takeover candidate, since the subsequent out-years (2004/2005) forecast REALLY SERIOUS profits. If the Evil Wizards of Wall Street start covering iNEXTV later next year, I suspect a resulting positive and sustained reaction in stock price around the same timeframe.
The model is available upon request.
Trent. |
