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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 335.25

+0.8%

10:38 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (46323)	5/6/2001 5:10:46 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Gottfried, Thanks for the info. Assuming that we are headed to a bullish confirmed signal, one could argue that it would have been better though to have bought near the bottom instead. However, I have a lot of respect for methods such as these. There are so many approaches one could use, that all this can get rather complicated. I think it is possible to just keep an eye on valuations, basic charts, and overall sentiment (especially among the less sophisticated investors) and to make some pretty good calls based on that. As I might have mentioned before, I like this idea of moving money into and out of tech depending on metrics like this. One advantage is that you can do this and always be fully invested if you want. I especially like the idea of switching into and out of BRKB from techs. Looking back at least, that would have worked well. One bear argument has been that the Nasdaq is likely to follow the pattern of the NikKei. I don't agree with that one because of some fundamental differences in our economy. There was a good program on PBS that got into Japanese culture and business and government practices. One point was that people there tend to be less willing to take risks, and this was viewed as a negative for Japanese companies going forward. Numerous positives of Japanese culture were also pointed out, but it was argued that this is a negative overall for corporations. I was in Japan once and was impressed with the culture there, but I can understand what is meant by the above argument. I think the USA is in much better shape than the Japanese economy was after their market crashed in the early 90's, so hopefully we don't need to worry about the Nasdaq following the pattern of the Nikkei. John

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