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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 252.74+0.3%Jan 28 3:59 PM EST
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To: maui_dude who wrote (38484)5/7/2001 2:34:06 PM
From: Charles RRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Maui,

<do you (or somebody else) know, Given tualatin's die size, how many .13 fabs would intel need to meet the mobile demand this year (assuming no .13 capacity is used up for p4) ?>

It is hard to tell without knowing how many wafer starts are planned. Assuming a good WSW number, 1 fab should be more than sufficient to cover the laptop demand.

But this conversion does provide AMD with a good opportunity. One way AMD can really take advantage of the situation is by moving Durons to 1G this Q and to 1.1 and 1.2G in Q3. That way, AMD would have a large sweetspot to sell the desktop processors into. An ideal lineup for Q3 back-to-school season from AMDs perspective could be:

P3/Celeron: 700-1100MHz
Duron: 900-1200MHz
Athlon: 1200-1600 MHz
P4: 1500+ MHz

That should push P3/Celeron ASPs to well below $100 and Intel wouldn't be able to push P4 prices too low. AMD can sell in the $50-$200 range with great success.

I would have thought AMD would be in the above said scenario in Q2 but having watched AMD management's incompetence for the last year, I am not sure such a scenario will come to pass even in Q3. If AMD succeeds, longs may do quite well this year.

Chuck
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