Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 252.09

-0.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Charles R who wrote (38485)	5/7/2001 3:10:27 PM
From: dale_laroy	Read Replies (1) of 275872

>One way AMD can really take advantage of the situation is by moving Durons to 1G this Q and to 1.1 and 1.2G in Q3.< Won't happen. Morgan is supposed to be introduced at a peak speed grade of 1.0 GHz in Q3. We won't see anything faster until Q4, and it may even be that AMD will introduce a 1.0 GHz Spitfire instead if the Morgan die is indeed larger than the Spitfire die. >An ideal lineup for Q3 back-to-school season from AMDs perspective could be:< P3/Celeron: 700-1100MHz P3 Coppermine may be able to hit 1133 MHz by then. Duron: 900-1200MHz I think it would be a good idea for AMD to offer a 1.2 GHz Duron versus Intel's 1133 MHz Coppermine, but wouldn't expect it any earlier than late November of this year. Athlon: 1200-1600 MHz This is probably realistic, but Athlon might dip down as low as 1133 MHz to match the peak speed grade of Coppermine. P4: 1500+ MHz Without Northwood, Intel may continue to offer the 1.4 GHz P4 throughout H2 2001. >That should push P3/Celeron ASPs to well below $100 and Intel wouldn't be able to push P4 prices too low.< Not likely. Intel's strategy is to flood the consumer market with low margin P4 processors while keeping margins high on P3, which sells better in the corporate market. Unless, corporate America embraces Duron/Athlon, Intel will probably do quite well with this strategy. >I would have thought AMD would be in the above said scenario in Q2 but having watched AMD management's incompetence for the last year, I am not sure such a scenario will come to pass even in Q3.< With the exception of the greater than 1.0 GHz Duron in Q3, and Celeron/P3 ASPs, I think there is a pretty good potential of the market being roughly what you outlined.

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