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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 55.11-2.6%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
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To: Biomaven who wrote (3700)5/8/2001 3:18:07 PM
From: Harold Engstrom  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
Peter,

I think the PE for Biogen was reasonable without pricing in Rebif competition:

1) Growth rate is now likely to go negative and maybe double digit negative.
2) The pipeline stinks: there is Amevive and then a long distance to anything else. Sure there is Antegren and a couple others, but...
3) The company gives guidance for pipeline candidates and then just stops talking about them (Q: ever heard of Gelsolin? or CVT124? A: yes, but only after they went to sleep.)
4) Management is great, but this team is showing it is good at maintenance, not at sustaining growth.

Amgen is overpriced. But, they will have growth and they do have a pipeline. They are deal-makers.

How about MLNM? How many drug candidates do they say they will have soon? Something like 2,000, I think. What about VRTX? Somewhere I heard that the company expects to file 2-3 NDAs per year by 2005 and file 5 INDs each year (didn't they file 5 INDs this year?)

It is disheartening to see a great company with great science groan along at such a slow pace when they have so much potential and are in the heart of biotechland.

You may be right that there is no reason to sell way off, but I just can't see much upside unless Amevive explodes out of the gates.
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