Harold, some other viewpoints below. Personally I see some improvement in Biogen's pipeline, but as I said this morning, I am very disappointed that we have not seen more alliances. Although I have respect for Biogen's capabilities, I would say that they have missed many many opportunities to forge alliances. I won't regain my confidence until I see real deals with near term prospects. Biogen has manufacturing and marketing capabilities that give it real advantages in negotiating these deals, but they have not been able to take advantage of their strengths. I believe they will do well the next few years, but they had better keep adding to the pipe or they will lose the race in the long run.
Biogen shrugs off trial results from rival Serono
By Toni Clarke
biz.yahoo.com
NEW YORK, May 8 (Reuters) - Shares of Biogen Inc.(NasdaqNM:BGEN - news), the maker of the top-selling multiple sclerosis drug Avonex, rose more than 4 percent as investors dismissed data showing a rival product could be on the U.S. market sooner than expected.
Biogen's shares closed at $58.52 Tuesday on the Nasdaq. Earlier in the day, they traded as high as $58.95.
On Tuesday Geneva-based Serono SA (NYSE:SRA - news) said a six-month head-to-head trial it conducted between Avonex and its own MS treatment, Rebif, showed patients treated with Rebif are 90 percent less likely to relapse than those treated with Avonex.
``Serono's data looks positive,'' said Eric Ende, an analyst at Banc of America Securities. ``I think Rebif will get onto the market by the end of 2002.''
Avonex currently enjoys protection from competition under the so-called ``orphan drug'' rule. Serono's finding could persuade the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to revoke Avonex's protected status.
REBIF IMPACT ALREADY PRICED IN
Expectations that Serono may win approval from the FDA to market Rebif in the United States have, however, already been priced into Biogen's shares, Ende said. Last week Biogen fell 11.6 percent to $57.13 on anticipation of Serano's report.
Now, analysts said, investors are focusing on Biogen's next potential blockbuster, Amevive, a treatment for the skin condition psoriasis. The drug has completed Phase III clinical trials, typically the last stage before a product is submitted for marketing approval. Biogen is awaiting the results.
``I'm very optimistic about the company (Biogen) as a whole because they've got some products in the pipeline that are coming along well,'' said Daniel Morgan, who helps manage $250 million in assets for Boca Raton, Florida-based Noble Financial Group, which holds 14,000 Biogen shares.
Biogen also has high hopes for Adentri, a drug for congestive heart failure that's currently in Phase I of clinical trials.
``They're leveraging themselves pretty well,'' said Morgan. "We own the stock in our managed accounts and we'll continue to hold it. Even if Serono does get approval I'm not just going to sell my Biogen stock.
``I'll look first to see what it all means. How will Serono's drug be distributed, how marketed? I'll look at how they plan to attack this whole market,'' said Morgan.
Until it begins marketing a new drug, though, Biogen could be vulnerable. Avonex accounts for some 80 percent of the company's revenue. Avonex sales totaled $761 million in 2000.
Biogen itself is quick to dismiss Serono's trial results.
``There's a lot of data already in existence which do not show any important differences between Rebif and Avonex,'' said Burt Adelman, vice president, medical research at Biogen.
``Serono is trying to create a commercial opportunity from an interim trial, something that runs counter to the standards that are the basis of drug development,'' said Adelman. |
