Pooh- I've been keeping a scrap book...here's a starter:
(Note..it's not edited...hehe...)
keeping
a daily diary of the volume figures on each dow stock...so wat I want you to do is get 2 college ruled 11 inch note books and
list all 30 dow stocks in the following order top to bottom hon aa jpm axp t jnj intc dd ek xom ge gm sbc ko ibm cat ip mcd
mrk mmm ba mo pg hd hwp msft dis utx wmt c.....then get the late volume figures on each stock...usually after 9 pm
est...make sure if there is an x dividend price you use the rite net change in price for that particular stock...anyway..at the end
of every day list the volume... for instance the first stock ...HON...for example like on thur the volume was 2,735,500 and the
stock was up 23 cents....so start the column to look like this.....HON. +2,735,500 ..23....circle the 23 ....now if the stock was
down 23cent then just put a - sign rather than a plus sign in front of the volume....now this is like learning how to do anything
seemingly complicated...one step ata time...do each stock like that every day...then after about a week or so Im goin to tell
you wat to do next...in fact if you print this out heres what I also want you to do....take another note book with the same list
of 30 stocks but this time divide the volume by the net change for that particular stock and keep a record of those 30....like fir
instance divide HON.s volume for today by 23 cents and enter that figure along with the other 29 ....so once you get in the
habit of doing this then Ill tell you wat to do next
wat were trying to do here is have 2 sets of figures for each stock...the basic volume for one list and the volume per penny on the second list
Okay....!
First Book
- Page #1 has 30 djia in correct order with volume and daily price change and runs down left margin. Circle the plus price change.
- Page #2 - ditto
Second Book
- Page #1 has 30 djia in correct order with volume per penny, (volume ÷ by daily price change-no decimal), and runs down left margin.
- Page #2 - ditto
Use volume figures gathered after 9:00 PM est
ya drop da decimal...and the quotient drop of tthose past the dot...devided the days total volume by the number of pennies..to get volume per penny....and yes were gonna have 2 sets of figures in vertical columsn...volume and volume per penny....
now ya gotta plot the volume breakouts......."DOWN" OR "UP.".example....add up the volume of any consecutive days in either direction till there is a change in direction....in other words like the +300..+400.+ 600 -200 ...-300 + 600 UP ...+200UP.....-400...-600 DOWN.....you assign either an UP or DOWN designation when the total of the preceding cumulative volume is retraced by by more of the total of the cumulative volume in the opposite direction....got it?
down and up breakouts never change from wherever u start the counts...its allways the same....comon think about volume on a cumulative basis zigin and zagin...if one zig exceeds a previous peak it gets an UP... and vica versa....
"Breakout" calculation...Here's what I'm doing...!
Using:
1]-- Per Penny Volume (not pure volume)
2]-- Additions and Subtractions are kept within a single day
3]-- Each day carries it's own OBV
lets try this....calculating from top to bottom
-400
+ 400
+500
+600 (total for 3 days of advancing volume 1500)
-300
-500 (total for 2 days of decling volume 800)
+400
+500 UP ( upside breakout)...as (total for 2 days of up volume excceeded the running total of the previous 2 days of declining volume)
+600 UP ( continue the upside designation as the advance continues)
NC UP (continue the upside designation even tho unchanged as long as the privious day was an upper}
+400 UP...(coninue the designations}
- 600 (no designation)
+700 UP ( upside designation as the 700 up vol exceed the previous daysdown vol}
-800 DOWN ( downside designation as the 800 exceeded the previous days up vol}
-300 DOWN
+500
+600
nc
+300 UP (upside designation as the cumulative totall of the last 4 days exceeded the priot 2 days of total neg vol}
I hope that excercise clears ur questions up....any way you do that on every dow stock every day on both the vol per pennies and the main volume.....at the end of the list of 30 dow components subtract the UP designations from the DOWN designations If there are 10 UPS and 4 Downs the net figure for the day is A POSITIVE 6 OR +6....THAT is the single digit ur looking for every day on both the regular and volume per penny lists....IF there are more down then up designations than the daily number will be a MINUS digit....its that single digit or double digit whatever the case that we work with....the concept, once you see it is outrageously beautiful once you do the next excercise with these daily numbers.....now itll take you a few days of running these numbers to get the final product of your daily work.....I know people who have built a program around this....once you get the hang of getting the daily CLX number which is the net difference of the UP and DOWN side breakouts of volume of each dow component...then we go on to the next step....but first I want you to train ur mind to getting the daily CLX right first before we go further....I will confirm your CLX numbers once you think you got the hang of it....ok...
its only the cumulative volume that is at play....if the last three days a stock was up each day and the total volume of those 3 consecutive days exceeded the volume of the prior cumulative volume of any string of consecutive down days then you would assign an UPPER designation to each day the cumulative volume was increasing over the prior string of consecutive cumulative days of down volume.....
for example...jnj
3/7 -3476300
3/8 +3948700
3/9 -4145800 DOWN
3/12 -3361300 DOWN
3/13 -4983400 DOWN
3/14 -3472200 DOWN
3/15 +3735900
3/16 -5628800 DOWN....
THE 15th doesnt get an up designation because the volume did not exceed the cumulative net volume of the prior 4 day net cumulative down volume....ya see???? the cumulative volume of the 9th 12th 13th 14th all added up gives u an ending sum to exceed begining with the up day of the 15th
Been counting volumes vertical down the page.... hon aa jpm axp t etc. -- on down the list for each day, to get CLX count. Not Smart....!
My Mistake, My Error.
Will now go back to the original two books-single page concept and go horizontally in each stock for each day.
jpm 3/13 -> jpm 3/14 -> jpm 3/15 -> jpm 3/16 -> etc
Then working with these +/- counts to get a CLX number for a day.
(593)
there ya go......now to double check my daily fiigures for accuracy....I keep a daily log prepared every nite a list of all 30 main volume and volume per penny listing how much volume I need if any to get either an upside or downside breakout for each stock...a rather simple excercise in helping to keep things as accurate as possible...thus I end up with 2 CLX figures every day.....main volume CLX and volume per penny CLX.........now you keep two charts....first get graph paper ...I believe its 8 squares to the inch.... segment them with lines on both sides of zero in the middle the lines 5 squares apart.......each horizontal square is one day......take the main volume clx and plot a 3 day 10 day and 30 day moving average...make sure the 30 day is plotted at 20 per square the 10 day at 2 per square and the 3 day at 1 per 5 squares....once you get a picture of the moving averages.....you can look at the offsets to see how much life is left in the move.....aha but to get a turn the volume per penny clx must turn first....thus we plot a 3 day moving average of the net difference of the volume per penny and main volume CLX...when this 3 day MA of the difference gets to an extreme one way or another then you wait for the offsets to run out,the cycle picture to line up,the fibonacci targets to be hit, the sentiment to get into great shape...the elliot wave structure to get into a 5th wave and watever other tools you can find to help you be a GURU....the CLX is a great confidence builder.......when used in conjuction with all the other tools of the trade....ya cant build a house with justa hammer ya know......
ur not doin overal cumulative volume just lookin for volume breakouts...... on the 15th it was only one day of upside volume the total of which was not enough to offset the total cumulative volume of the previous unbroken string of down days ....so after the 15th since the 16th was down on more volume than was up on the 15th you have another downside breakout.....there was a time when we track the Net Fieldtrend Indicator which my analysis has proven to be worthless...the NFI which is another part of CLX analysis that Granville invented has proven inefective..remember all we are trying to do is to come up with a daily CLX number......as far as cumulative volume....it should not be lost on us that the bulk of the big board volume is consintrated in the 30 components of the dji....on a percentage basis...thus keeping a daily cumulative advance decline line of the net difference of advancing and declining volume (the PUMP) has a more meaningul message than the daily price advance decline line which we know through observation is worthless as a technical tool.....remember prices can sky rocket wilst the daily adavance decline line can plumment....needless to say its because of the phenomena of 2 giant steps up and 10 babysteps back that causes cumulative AD lines to go down while price goes up......that is why the weekly AD line is so much more important as it smooths things out and BTW gives a great elliot wave structure as does the PUMP..(the daily cumulative advance decline line of the net difference of big board up and down volume}
the current consecutive volume string has to exceed the volume of the consecutive string of the previous direction..... we need to see a consecutive string of up volume days that exceed an unbroken string of down volume days.....
its only the cumulative volume that is at play....if the last three days a stock was up each day and the total volume of those 3 consecutive days exceeded the volume of the prior cumulative volume of any string of consecutive down days then you would assign an UPPER designation to each day the cumulative volume was increasing over the prior string of consecutive cumulative days of down volume.....
CLX watching....you mite notice that the largest negative number occured a few days ago...as the dow declined further the
minus CLX number started to shrink....first sign of a bottom approaching....the 10 day moving avg of the clx is in a window of vulnerability
till friday...afterthat no more positive offsets to work off for awhile.....another thing to watch is the daily zigs and zags....that
can set up a big upday on the CLX......
EXPAND....now that u keep a 3 10 and 30 day ma of the main CLX...u do the same with the CLX pp.....and to that add a 3 day moving avg of the net difference of the 2 CLX.S.....and now the picture will broaden......and ur mindll expand....an ull have next wks WSJ wid dis chit....and then you do both clx.s all over again on the weekly closing prices of every dow component.......u knew this wasnt goin to be easy....dintja????
yep...u do it the same way....u will come up with a diffferent clx number.....and its the net difference of those two clx.s u do a 3 day moving avg of......below a neg 3 its bullish above a pos 3 its bearish....the timing you will be able to spot as the clx.s roll over..
gz....once u get into the rythm and habit of doin the clx.s very accurately....I suggest u construct a daily page of the net volumes required to produce breakouts...that way u can cross check ur work every day....now once u get on a roll with the clx.s....you have to start graphing the 3 10 and 30day mov avgs of these numbers.....and you must keep a log of all daily clx.s......once you get the feel for it you will be able to determine in advance when u should expect a turn.......obviously clx studies go hand in hand with helping to confirm or deny ur other analysis such as RSI ,time cylcles....stentiment.....5 day arms 10 day arms...pc ratios which by the way are available at www.cboe.com.....and once u get all this together u will have the confidence to defie the crowd phsycology at any turning point....and you will be able to get much closer to the turn.....fir instance we got long the spooz at the 1090 1100 level ....which was coincident with the 78.6 support.....so uve also got to understand fibonaaci relationships and of course charting techneeks....lots of thing to keep ya buzy and outa truble
simplisticly...wat ur seeing by using the clx pp is the accumulation or distribution phase begin at its earliest stage....best measured by the differential of the the 2 clx.s on a 3 day MA ..once the 3 day ma of the net difference of the 2 clx.s exceeds plus or minus 3 u then u know that once the 10 ma runs out of offsetts u can usually count on a turn....it helps when the 30 day ma of the clx.s also runs out of the neg or pos offsets...in the recent upturn notice that the dow exploded 800 points and friday was the first day of a positive clx a plus 1....that is called ease of movement....which means that the dow has the potential of going up very big till u run out all the offsets....
when the aydis gets to +3.00 or above the market is vulnerable ...if the aydis drops fast then you can see by the action that its only a matter of a day or two when the aydis is back to bullish minus territory...you can see this potential because of the great minus offsets in the 10 da ma of the clx.s that will support the advance...also helpin is the the quick return in the 5 day arms and the percent volume index back into bullish territory.....
u werent listening.....and watching...I believe on thursday i indicated that a cycle low was due and that the 10 day had declined to the rising 30 day and shud turn up....well???? the market generally doesnt top till 30 days past the peak of the 30 day ma.....since the 30 day just crossed the zero line its obvious that the best part of the move is before us with a fib target of 16660 on the dow asthe potential for this move....u scare to easily....let the rest worry for us...they are professional worriers who havent a clue about wats coming....they are all confused....all the input they get is from know nothing bears.....Pc ratios and ursa bear bull ratios are on the bulls side from a contrarian stand point and with the CLX analyis saying up...wat more do u need especially since the 3.3 year cycle just bottomed.......TO THE MOON.... |
