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Strategies & Market Trends : Drillbits & Bottlerockets

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (8590)	5/9/2001 2:10:09 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) of 15481

Dell CEO Sees PC Replacement Cycle Coming dailynews.yahoo.com From the message that I am responding to: Message #8590 from Jorj X. McKie at Apr 20, 2001 10:27 AM Hi Poet, Random thoughts time (completely unrelated to your message) In this message, I speculated that much of the problem that we have been having in the market in the past year was related to excessive Y2K spending. Message 15614097 If my speculation has any merit, is it possible that the cyclicality of spending in tech was exaggerated on the downside as well? And would this imply that we are going to have another exaggerated increase in spending as equipment/software purchased in the final 2 quarters of 1999 becomes outdated? At my previous employer, PCs/Laptops were upgraded every 18 months. But because of Y2K everyone received a new PC/Laptop in the second half of 1999. Normally, the distribution of PCs/Laptops would have been smoothed out over the entire year....actually 18 months, but the cycle was compressed into about a 6 month window on the acquisition side, but the obsolescence cycle remained at 18 months. Coupled with the economic situation, I imagine that a few companies probably decided to draw out the upgrade cycle by an additional 6 months...that means that we would just be coming up to the start of the new cycle in spending in the next few months. And if the market looks forward.... Just a thought.

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