an interesting day, bonds doing well....gold doing well, currencies kicking around... WCOM bonds trading up,
10 year note auction is well received......money for everyone and everything -g-
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Today's Highlights (05/09/01)
05/09-10 LDN: MPC meeting Consensus Last
09:30 Fed activity-System RPs expected
09:30 WASH:Tsy Sec O'Neill Press Conf, ADB Meet
13:00 9 3/4-Year Note auction $9.0B
Results Ave.Last12 Feb'01
Auction yield 5.683% 5.067%
10Yr WI-Active +10bps +32bps
Cover 2.08times 2.10
Noncomps $97Mln $84Mln
18:30 ABC/Money survey May 6 NA 2
Thursday's Highlights (05/10/01)
Consensus Last
AM Chain store sales Apr Y/Y NA 1.2%
07:00 LDN: MPC policy announcement
07:45 FFT: ECB Council meeting results
08:30 Export price index Apr unch (0.1%)
08:30 Import price index Apr 0.2% (1.6%)
08:30 Initial claims 05/05 420K 421K
08:30 State benefits 04/28 NA 2682K
09:30 Fed activity-Term system RPs expected
09:25 CHI:Fed Chm Greenspan at Banking Conf
11:30 CHI:Fed Gov Meyer at Banking Conf
Friday's Highlights (05/11/01)
Consensus Last
08:30 Retail sales Apr 0.1% (0.2%)
08:30 Retail sales ex-auto 0.4% (0.1%)
08:30 PPI Apr 0.3% (0.1%)
08:30 PPI ex-food & energy 0.1% 0.1%
09:30 Fed activity-Wkend system RPs expected
10:00 Michigan sentiment mid-May 88.0 88.4
Summary
US financial futures prices are firmer this morning helped by weaker stock
prices after Cisco's poor earnings report yesterday evening and weaker than
expected German industrial production figures (fell 3.7%MM in March vs.
forecast -1.1% reading). Short end is leading way as curve steepening bias
dominates again. We have no data today but we will have the 10-Yr note
auction to contend with. It is expected to go well. Tomorrow, Chrm
Greenspan speaks to the Chicago Fed Bank Conference, we'll get the regular
weekly jobless claims and Apr import/export prices. Friday is key data day
with the release of Apr PPI, retail sales and UoM Sentiment May-prelim.
Recommendations
>June 10Yr Note: Daily stochastics in a buy. Weeklies down (K=31; D=43).
Near term trading bias looking for an extension of bounce toward the 106-00
to 107-00 area basis nearest futures and 4.80-5.00% region on 10Yr yields at
which point we'd move to a neutral-negative trading bias again. Low yield
in this run was 4.687% hit March 22, 2001. The 1999 yield low 4.61% on
January 14, 1999. The 1998 yield low around 4.10% hit Oct 5, 1998.
>June 30Yr Bond: Daily stochastics in a buy. Weeklies down (K=22; D=31). LT
positive outlook still supported by moderating growth (down to the 2-3% pace
vs. above trend growth our economy had been experiencing), muted inflation
pressures and anticipated continuation of paying down long term debt and
reduced issuance. Nonetheless, scope for significantly lower yields likely
to be muted. Low yield on this run 5.217% hit March 22, 2001. The 1999
yield low 5.06% on Jan 14, 1999. The 1998 yield low around 4.69% hit Oct 5,
1998. |
