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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 78.42+1.9%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: michael97123 who wrote (52734)5/9/2001 5:02:41 PM
From: Stock Farmer  Read Replies (2) of 77400
 
Mike - I'm not a wave guy. Because I took fourier analysis and know that any finite shape can be described by waves so the wave guys can always prove their theory works for the past.

Now, as to the future, and whether 3950 is some right number. Only the shadow knows.

I do agree with you that short term the bouyancy of the market is quite strong. What else would describe neutral to positive price movement when the news just keeps rolling out so bad. So if the news ever neutralizes, we we could pop quickly to the upside.

We should get lifted higher. I've PM'd elsewhere that I saw 3700 (ish) as a trigger point, mostly based on irrational behaviors. What's -8% when you are trying to avoid -50%?

As to timing? 2001 vs 2002? If we follow the '29 scenario (and as of a few months ago it was eerie) then we hit a peak in '01, Late 3Q or early 4Q.

But again, timing is irrelevant to me. If the bubble collapses today then CSCO will be a single digit stock, if it collapses 12 months from now it will also be a single digit stock. Maybe double digits late in 2002 if economic growth zooms back. But it's speculation at this point to say the stock should be any higher. IMHO.

John.
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