Message to all. Hedge all techs with CRUDE stocks/ENERGY. OSX will creep up, and these stocks make 1-4 point moves. I have traded the OSX now for simce 96, and I owned these stocks when crude was 10 bbl. Its fairly easy to predict the movement from May-Sept, its UP!! OPEC is not happy with BUSH energy plan. OPEC hates the thought of US opening lands to more drilling, and for that reason OPEC will teach BUSH a valuble lesson in the coming months. Remember CLINTON was pro-imports so OPEC supported CLINTON policies to some degree, BUSH could careless about middle east and thinks US can handle a gas crunch.........I DISAGREE!!
I expect CRUDE to creep from 27.5-28 range to 33-35 range in the next 3-6 weeks. As API gets tight, refiners will get behind the demand. This is where the money will be made this summer. TECH will be DEAD! They will stay in a very, very tight range unless you short storage.
I am actually getting into the CHECK the crude price intraday to follow the trend. We have had 1 very bad API and OSX bounced back to its previous level. These stocks want to go higher. SLB, HAL, NE, SDC, RIG, DO....al are 2-4 point movers once we get over 29bbl. I have been noticing many long contracts betting on over 30BBL crude by JULY, but I think its much sooner!
We ride these up, and short them as CRUDE hits major resistance at 33-35 area.
Tech will not be in play again until after SUMMER, and only for a trade. TECH trading will dry up in the coming months with an emphisis on ENERGY and it DEPLETION! |
