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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 691.72

-0.1%

Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: Robert New who wrote (76746)	5/10/2001 8:18:09 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) of 99985

If we go through 2250, I think that I may turn more "constructive" as well, but until the "fat lady sings", I don't mind staying on the side line. I have already captured two excellent moves so far this year (on the long side, from Jan 2nd to the 31st and March 22nd to April 19th), so missing a little on the next break out, would not worry me. I still think that capital preservation (and staying out of major declines) is more important than getting every single iota of the gains. As Bobby succinctly stated, we are forming an interesting triangle and it can resolve either on the upside or the down side. I lean to the down side for a number of reasons, including numbers like the VIX and VXN getting back to the January lows, advisors sentiments becoming overly bullish etc. On the bright sign the A/D line is starting to show signs of a turn. You just never get a real "clear signal". Zeev

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