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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: The IB Dude who wrote (39584)5/10/2001 8:58:18 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Read Replies (2) of 50167
 
Notice these things very carefully, the green offshoots visible in the thicket of reports..<The NAPM index reached a ten-year low in January, but has since begun a weak recovery and stood at 43.2% in April. Although the level of the index continues to suggest a significant contraction in manufacturing activity, the direction of movement indicates that the pace of the decline is decelerating. Thus, we are now on the long road to improvement.

This spark of optimism is reflected in other indicators as well. Most tellingly, the inventory to shipments ratio for all manufacturing industries peaked in January and has since begun to decline. The current downturn in the industry has primarily been an inventory correction. Manufacturers originally began to reduce production in response to a rising inventory to shipments ratio last summer. With this measure now beginning to improve, production cutbacks will begin to be curtailed.

Industrial production of manufacturers has also begun to improve. Although the decline in year-over-year growth is accelerating, more tellingly, month-to-month comparisons have begun to show some improvement. Month-to-month growth bottomed in December and was actually positive in March. Although it is very likely that March's encouraging result will not be repeated in April, it does support the NAPM index's suggestion of a slowing decline in manufacturing. >
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