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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (3088)5/10/2001 11:00:31 AM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (2) of 3536
 
Apparently, Wayne Angell doesn't agree with the consensus of economists polled.

We are forced to conclude that the shakeout of jobs over the coming months is likely to be more severe than we had previously imagined and, under these circumstances, we can no longer hold to the view that the economy will skirt a recession since we do not see how consumer spending can continue to hold up in the face of a significant contraction in employment. At the present time, therefore, we believe the odds are greater than 50% that the economy has slipped into recession, and we expect that GDP will contract in both the second and third quarters. It is, therefore, as close to a certain call as there can be that the Fed will out interest rates by a further 50 basis points at the May 15 policy meeting. We also expect that there will be an additional 100 basis points of rate cuts by the middle of the third quarter.
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