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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: sammaster who wrote (101445)5/10/2001 10:05:46 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (3) of 436258
 
there's only one problem with this theory: the FF futures say he will cut, and he NEVER EVER does something unbullish with rates without telling everybody twenty times about it in advance...only cuts are done as a surprise.

BUT there's a PPI due tomorrow, and unless they really bake it to death, it should be bad. that may alter the FF futures , and thus the whole scenario that is now taken for granted.

imo a likely LT development is that the cyclical inflation upturn intensifies for a pronounced false spring (the fact that the consensus among economists is that inflation is dead argues for this) , inducing them to eventually reverse the rate cutting process briefly, and that that reversal, or stalling, brings about the deflationary K winter.
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