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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 53.59

+2.3%

10:49 AM EST

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To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (3747)	5/10/2001 11:25:21 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) of 52153

Miljenko, It's the first "cure" or perhaps "semi-cure" for a cancer that doesn't involve nasty chemo or radiation. Further, it was very much a "designer drug" based on an understanding of the disease at a molecular level, rather than something that popped out in a random screening. By me, that makes it revolutionary. Agreed that it is very much a special case, and there is no easy way to extrapolate what was done here to more common (and much more complex) cancers. However, it gives hope and encouragement that in our lifetimes we will see similar progress in other cancers. ABC News tonight did indeed hype it. Worst part was when they gave a list of common cancers that it was going to be tried on. Unfortunately people are going to hope that it will have dramatic effects in these as well, which I think is very likely a false hope. ABC News also had an ENMD report. This cancer news and ASCO coming up might well produce some unsustainable pops. The way I like to play these is what I've always called ENMD roulette - buy a small stake ahead of time in a bunch of the likely candidates and be prepared to bail if you get lucky and any of them pop excessively. Peter

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