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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 330.35+0.5%Jan 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (541)5/11/2001 12:05:36 AM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) of 95708
 
Take a look at this chart of the SOX. In particular take a look at the MACD. See where the blue line has turned south of the red line.

bigcharts.com

e-analytics.com

Although technical analysis is based on forecasting the future based on the past and cannot possibly be expected to be accurate 100% of the time it is a useful too that is accurate more often than not.

As I look closely at this chart I now realize that the next stop going down may come much sooner that even 4 weeks.It could easily be that we turn higher again in no more than a week or two but next Tuesday the FED will cut rates again. Will they cut the expected 50 basis points? What if they only cut 1/4 point. If that happens we will see another good reason for people to continue selling.

In addition once earnings season is over the market will have little other than the economy to think about for quite a while. That puts the market at risk again. Still the FED has been doing all it can lately and I think they will finally get technology going again in a fashion that will quite possibly make this next sell off the one to buy for longer term semiconductor investors.

Thanks to everyone for their replies to my message. I have no idea how right or wrong my opinion will be here. I only know I want to buy semiconductors cheaper than they closed today. I think the additional selling that I hope will be coming will allow me a safer entry point than buying into an analyst upgrade like we saw this morning.

RtS
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