8:45 AM
ECONOMY TALK: The PPI data shows a continued upward tilt in inflation but the pipeline data, such as intermediate and crude goods, points to a possible moderation in the coming months, owing to cyclical forces. At +0.3% (consensus +0.4%) the PPI now stands 3.7% above year ago levels, up from 3.15 in March but down from the recent peak of 4.8% in January. Excluding food and energy, the +0.2% increase (consensus +0.1%) put the core PPI up 1.6% in April versus +1.4% in March. That's the highest since last August.
8:40 AM
ECONOMY TALK: The most important point about the retail sales data are the revisions to back months. When taken into account, retail sales are actually in-line to weaker than expectations. Cumulative revisions to overall retail sales were -0.4% and cumulative revisions to retail sales ex-autos were -0.5%. This puts nominal retail sales close to expectations overall and below expectations excluding automobiles. A second key point is that gasoline sales, which were up 2.5%, added almost 0.2% to overall retail sales. That gain, of course, is rooted in the sharp increase in the price of gasoline. |
