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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 53.82+2.7%3:54 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (3757)5/11/2001 10:49:17 AM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (2) of 52153
 
Ian,

It's a long way from the genome to a wonder-drug. As Miljenko pointed out, this was a very unusual cancer caused by a very specific genetic defect. I believe virtually all common cancers are much more complex and will likely not succumb to a single, narrowly focused drug.

However, lets see what MLNM in particular can come up with. Recall also that Novartis elected to merge their non-Gleevec kinase program with that of VRTX, so maybe we'll see something exciting from them, although I don't think that cancer is their main focus.

It's also worth pointing out that the economics of developing a drug like Gleevec are pretty marginal. With only 5k patients, even at the reported $20-25K a year price this makes it only a $100m drug. Novartis was definitely being a good citizen here, particularly as they built production capacity very early.

Incidentally, the ABC news report made an interesting point - this drug will definitely increase the pressure on Medicare to cover oral prescription drugs. A few dying patients and Congress will likely yield.

Peter
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