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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 129.25

+0.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: edamo who wrote (165294)	5/11/2001 11:27:59 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (3) of 176387

unless the momentum is lying, and the supply dries up today, the odds to see thirty are quite long by next week....more probable to go down then up in the short term it failed the last breakout above thirty...200dma still sloping down....needs to break 28 on heavy volume, if it falls below 23, could see 20 looks like gerstner again stating the demise of profitable pc business... Edamo, Although many will disagree with me but I feel that we are seeing some hints that Dell is a bit like the old Dell from late 1990s. Comments out of Michael Dell have been fairly positive while negative commentary seems to be coming from elsewhere. Gerstner also seems to hint that they are not interested in price wars. The PC biz is not a big deal for them anyways. In addition, it seems that it is really up to Dell to decide when to ease the pressure on the competition. Since their Gross Margins are going better than their internal plans, Dell probably has a lot of flexibility. The second factor is that they are getting lean and mean ahead of a major product launch cycle from MSFT--Office and Windows. Does anyone catch the BIG swings in Dell stock price during the last few day. Might be way up..better than the Nasdaq and later could end up way worse than the Naz by the close. That incredible volatility is a sign to me that we are setting up for a major run up in this stock. In the meantime, we got lots of negative analyst comments on the state of the PC business and negative commentary...some calling MSFT's launch of Windows a delay (which I don't believe it is). Dell's wild swings during negative news tells me that the weakness has already played out in the market. So with these violent swings in stock price 2 weeks ahead of earnings and now 1 week ahead....I can only conclude that the direction of this stock will be up next week. The amount of shorting on analyst comments is something that lasts til about 1 week before earnings..I would expect major short covering to be driving this stock up by earnings. That is why I am saying it seems a bit like the old Dell...rallies into earnings after negatives have been absorbed by the market 1 to 4 weeks before earnings. Might not seem much of an analysis but that is my gut feeling for next week. We could approach to exceed 30 near term and maybe head for 40 by fall---just ahead of the Windows XP launch. Given the timing of the launch, Dell gets to be even in a more advantaged position as Compaq and HWP will take time to get their machines into the stores, which will cost them during a peak buying season. Dell should outperform the Nasdaq EASILY today according my feelings...so far so good. The short covering on this stock is going to begin; it got heavy shorting into April and that probably continued right into this week....Now that has to reverse as I don't believe institutions were dumping this stock in a big way.

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