Sven...
Thanks for the note. It's tough to say here, one thing I do know is that the Commercial net long gold position in the COT's is smaller again this week by 2572 contracts, and it's rapidly approaching the levels it was at during the mid march top in the HUI...
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyymy[dc][pb50!b200!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Li5,5]
On 3/13/01 the commercial position in the COT's was 13,665, right now it's at 17247 and it's been falling dramatically for the last 4 weeks down from 57990 on 4/10/01.
What's even more interesting is the net long position in the small speculators positions is growing each week, and these traders are notoriously WRONG. FWIW the small speculators position long position is rapidly approaching the #s of the March top as well.
I realize the gold train can pull away fast, but I sincerely doubt it will pull out without the conductor onboard... ie. the commercial traders. When I see the commercials reverse direction long in a big way, the way they did in early april, Then I'll jump.
Again if the train leaves without me, ces't la vie. There will always be other opps. I think it's going to take some more time to really put the inflation fears in perspective, and scare the public into gold.
Inv H/S measures to around 75 give or take... the question is will it be a V bottom or a longer term base. Long bear markets usually have long bases. But this is a great start<gg>
stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyymy[df][pb50!b200!a55!a75!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9]
Have a great weekend,
JM |
