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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 101.61+2.8%Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: The Prophet who wrote (72659)5/12/2001 2:19:16 PM
From: pheilman_  Read Replies (1) of 93625
 
re: If the cost to produce RDRAM is roughly
20% more than SDRAM/DDR

A huge assumption. To manufacture RDRAM, the DRAM plant has to integrate Rambus' wacky circuitry, new testing gear must be purchased, royalties must be paid.

In contrast, to manufacture DDR at this point requires a change in the bond-out file. SDRAM and DDR are the same part.

So, lets look at the economics.

SDRAM --> RDRAM costs +Circuitry risk and yield hit +Capital Expense +Royalties
SDRAM --> DDR costs no additional costs

SDRAM --> RDRAM prices +100%
SDRAM --> DDR prices +50%

Market for RDRAM Playstation 2, P4 computers (end is in sight for P4 market)
Market for DDR All high end graphics cards (with tasty premiums), large server market, future desktop market, future embedded market

Given a limited number of DRAM designers which market would be better for a DRAM manufacturer to enter?

This is not even including the fact that most of the DRAMurai will not be happy until they see Rambus reduced to smoking ash. This has been a terrible threat to a capital intensive, low margin industry.
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