[ Short ABMD ]
Hi Mel ! I notice that often when I short a boitech, you are already long or are contemplating going long. What a coincidence! Are you a momentum speculator? I'm a contrarian, and think that I should use you as a contrarian indicator!
Capevet's introduction to this thread states that the BVS system was approved in 1993, and represents roughly 90% of the company's sales. For the Q ending 3/31/97, BVS sales were exceptionally strong. Annualized, the quarterly results were SPS of $3.17, and EPS of $0.28. The quarterly EPS of $0.07 handily beat the EPS estimate of $0.04, but the stock didn't move much from 11 3/4 range. Based on that quarter, the market valued ABMD at P/S of 3.7 amd P/E of 42.
Until now, BVS could be used on coronary bypass patients, of which there are many, plus some minor categories of patients. The recent news was that the FDA will allow the BVS system to be used on an additional minor category of patients. I don't think this change will stimulate any new sales. Hospitals already have the system, and now they can use it slightly more often.
Two days ago the bid was 11 1/8, and today I sold at 15 1/8. Will this news really increase sales or profits by 36%? I'm betting that it won't, be we'll see. The other advantage that the shorts have is that the extra high sales last quarter steal from the sales this quarter. Sequential comparisons are likely to be poor.
ABMD has released their press release three times now. From past expereince, that's a sure sign of pump and dump.
Happy speculation everyone! |
