AS, You continue to be entertaining!
The only thing missing in AS is another S. Your "factual" arguments are flawed beyond belief. Further, you clearly don't have a TA clue. The front end sectors (i.e., Fedex, rails, etc.) say this one is not even close to over. Further, you don't even comprehend the economic definition of a recession. We are not in one now, and, according to AG, who has a lot of firepower to throw at the issue, we are not going into one. AG & Co. definitely came late to this party, and the jury is still out whether they can slow this reverse freight train down. Further, as, I believe, the CPI will show this week, there are some other implications involved.
A few of years ago, I did a five year analysis of all the SnP companies. While we agonize over quarterly earnings, in the best bull market, only 20% of these companies could achieve annual revenue and EPS growth for the five year period.
In the business section of our Sunday paper today, the Motley Fool folks point out that Benjamin Graham (hope your have a clue who he is) once stated that: "In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine." It also had a great quote from Bernard Baruch in response to a question asked many years ago by syndicated columnist Malcom Berko. When asked what was the secret to his success, he responded: "Young man, the secret to my success is that I sell too soon."
Sorry AS, but the time to buy IBM is not in the $1XX range. If you would look at a chart, you would see that $119 is providing critical resistance. Now, I have no doubt that IBM and the Market are going up over the next couple of days, but even the most optimistic buy point is $104. Further, I have no doubt that the gaps created from its last earnings report are going to be filled. IMHO, IBM is not a buy until it drops below $94 and comes back through it.
As to Mr. Market, I can only say that your vacation may be well timed. If you were not in the Market, before AG & Co. suddenly cut rates two days before option expiration in April, I doubt that you have made any money. It is Okay to Bullish or Bearish, but to be dumb is, as bb would say, to be "stoopid."
Berney |
