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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 203.14-0.8%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST
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To: milo_morai who wrote (39634)5/14/2001 6:20:01 PM
From: kapkan4uRead Replies (4) of 275872
 
<This attack on the mobile front is parallel only to the Classic Athlon Launch.>

Exactly right. Jerry brilliantly targeted Athlon 4 where Intel is the most vulnerable. Now again everybody is saying, "just wait for Tualatin". How quickly everybody forgot the "just wait for Willamette" battle cries. Now we all know what Willamette "event" turned out to be -- a thunderous fart.

Having said that, remember what the AMD stock price was in September of 1999 when Classic was shipping in volume? It was $7. So it takes some time for the stock price to reflect the fundamentals. Those who take a long-term view, stay away from margin and don't play silly option games (as in buying options) will do fine.

I am not buying AMD back yet because I think AMD will be trading bellow $20 or maybe even as low as $15 between now and the end of the year. At which point I will back up the truck again. The stock may correct because of combination of factors:

1. AMD flash is about 80% in cell phones and communications gear. Both sectors are in the tank till probably the fall of 2002 or longer.

2. The bear market will reassert itself with a vengeance after a sudden pickup in inflation numbers.

3. Athlon 4 mobile infrastructure and packaging are not mature yet. This will take time just like it took for Athlon from August 1999 till about now, to truly mature.

4. Hiring Hector was a mistake and if Jerry kicks him out the analysts will loose it.

Regards,

Kap
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