Sam, I have a healthy respect for the past. But as Twain put it, the future doesn't repeat the past, it rhymes. We don't know what is going to happen to the tech market, and while I respect your depiction of pharm as an area that every American is going to eventually need, you might also keep your head up as to the political ramifications of that centrality--and the effect that can have on profitability. It's not as if this is a new investment theme, either. WS has been "pounding the table" on pharm since the techs started to crater.
I'm aware of the parallels with the 'tronics boom of the late 60's, and I was working in SiliCon valley up through the '87 melee. It may be that tech hasn't come to earth yet.
However, an old salt such as yourself ought to be familiar with this one; "don't fight the fed". It seems that "Easy Al" is pretty determined to keep us out of the toilet. I'm sure that is what is keeping the likes of AMAT from seeking their cylical P/S, P/BK lows. (Very frustrating for those looking for an entry point, I'm sure.)
I'm not sold on tech Sam, and I appreciate the cold water. Sure it bothers me that we haven't seen the likes of AMAT and JDSU absolutely crater...investors still like tech, go figure.
I'm agnostic about where I can make some money---a couple of years ago it was Natgas and drilling back when everybody hated them and bankruptcy was the main concern with those stocks, today, hmmm..alot of folks really don't like tech and bankruptcy is a real concern---and like some of those drilling companies like HAL, or SLB back then, with miserable earnings they sure looked expensive.
I'm just trying to get a fix on what the story is here, and make the decision when or if to get in more or get out.
Pete |
