Blake, Nonetheless, no need to change your original (stingy) numbers, as you only had 11 MM RDRAM based units shipping in 2001.
Your caveat to the group that I'm a RAMBUS "sceptic" isn't quite accurate. (Remember, I'm the SDRAM guy for CY2001). <g> I'm skeptical about the penetration of both RDRAM and DDR this year and next.
Earlier I posed the question, is the technology sector weak because of low demand, or is there low demand because technology is ahead of the needs of the market? I've postulated a number of reasons I think the latter applies.
In a saturated market demand shifts from attracting new users to creating a need for upgrades in the installed base. (It would be interesting to know the aging of the installed base over time. My guess is that users are staying with their existing solution longer).
The last killer app was the internet. But for numerous reasons, most users find their existing platform is more than adequate for this application. Broadband deployment was to be one of the factors in driving demand. Price and user availability just aren't meeting projections. The content providers are stuck with designing sites for the >90% of the installed base connected through POT's.
One effect of saturation is that the user base is much more PC literate. The claim that you require the latest and greatest platform to enjoy all the features of the Internet falls on many more deaf ears.
It appears more of the discretionary spending for PC's is for peripheral's and upgrades. Digital cameras, hi-res color printers, hi-res scanners, memory upgrades, flat panel monitors, software, etc. These don't require a P4 with RDRAM.
The change in market demographics probably has more to do with the slowing of PC growth than anything else.
The trick now is to create a need for the majority of the installed base to upgrade the PC. I've no doubt this will happen, I'm just not sure when and what will drive it. And when it happens, the entry level PC will be more than adequate for the majority of users. Intel's investment in processes and 300mm wafers will insure that. (Along with the impact of increased competition).
JMO's |
