Well, since many good people are guessing at price action. A few meaningless notes.
The K, as I have posted before,was written deep into the first quarter. They stated clearly that they STILL had not achieved significant net revenues.Couldn't have been more direct. So, believe it or not, their net revenue was actually more that I personally expected. They are the rawest kind of streaming startup, and relying just about entirely upon streaming revs....and streaming revs aren't out there to be had yet. The framework is laid, they just have to keep growing at a 50% or better pace quarter to quarter( but that won't be easy). Virtually ALL streaming companies...even before banner and other advertising revenues + the streaming bubble collapsed ....were growing their revs through corporate webcasts etc ( if you recall TVontheWeb did almost a 1.7 million quarter)...that's how VDAT, for all their content syndication, makes most of their money right now. But iNEXTV decided there was little future in that.Since they had an ultralow expense fallback position of just keeping the royalty stream and the affiliates, they must think they see a real future in streaming. Are they right? Can they survive long enough to actualize their promise?
I do not know if the royalty shrinkage is just the very customary AXC trend or an aberration. If it is a clear trend, their apparent decision to turn down an ADS offer due to some patent inclusions becomes extraordinarily puzzling. But again, I will never be privy to the facts of what really happened.
Can't find ADS revs anywhere in the report, but clearly they fell once again.Unfortunate. With this stock it seems the instant you lean on a prop and dream, the next Q yanks it away.
ITG would seem on the face of it to be of substantial value. Will it finally attract the long rumored investment? It is not at all clear to me how they could IPO iNEXTV ....but if they sell stakes in it, the promise of a future spinoff would have to be the lure. A TV1 IPO or sale right now would probably only grab a few million.
As we all know, this company is in an extremely tight spot. As if they had jumped out of a 100 story building and around the tenth floor said "So Far So Good". But if they can find real financing...if ITG does indeed appeal to some big boys...there is a trampoline at the bottom.
My guess at price action..maybe a fairly sharp drop followed by some recovery...but mostly water torture. I sure don;t know though. I emotionally wrote this one off long ago ( or I thought I had). Good luck to all us longs.The few, the proud, the brave, the fatalistic, the always hopeful, the demented ; - ) |
