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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 76.93+1.2%12:59 PM EST
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To: Stock Farmer who wrote (53023)5/15/2001 12:59:44 PM
From: Graystone  Read Replies (1) of 77400
 
The First Step
or
A doozy.

As soon as I saw Stan get that glazed look I would say, slow down Stan, let's step back a bit.
I would rally up a spreadsheet with the stock prices of most of the major players in the new tech sector, dredging up the most optimistic prices. I would make sure my stock picks had before and after graph lines to represent the recent redeployment of capital (what recession ?). I would introduce Stan to the IPO pricing frenzy so he could get some idea of just how crazy it can get (Netscape, Sycamore etc...), the new market cap levels, before and after, and the astonishing PE's. He might possibly accept the truth of what I say. We would have to take a good look at the growth of the Evil Empire while he snoozed. Once we had established that things didn't make a lot of sense before or after the recent drawbacks, we would accept that it is what it is and it was what it was. We would have a good chuckle about the fact that Compuserve owns Bugs Bunny.

I would encourage Stan to think about starting his own new tech company so he could drive a Maclaren and possibly be one of the worlds richest men by 2011 selling something he and a few others made up.

If Stan is looking for an explanation I would point out that the math that gave us the pre bubble price has to explain the post bubble price and vice versa, can't be done, even with Excel.
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