ST trading: Yesterday's lows, for AMAT and NVLS, look like another bounce at the old resistance/new support levels. It's not real clean, because the bounces since 4/18 have been in about a 2-point range, about 48-50. Good enough to (sort of) convince me. Short-term, it looks like the trend is up. Longterm, the trend is still down, IMO. My long NVLS play is short-term, I'm out at 55-56. And, if it looks like 48 is failing, then I'll stop-loss.
2 weeks ago, investors were expecting 1/2% Fed cut, which was the best possible outcome, so I thought the reaction would be neutral or negative. Now, lots of investors are only expecting 1/4% cut, and 1/2% is still a reasonable possibility, so I have no guess about the reaction. Another random variable.
On earnings and CC, I expect AMAT management to say about the same thing they said last time: business is bad now, bad next quarter, and zero visibility for the time-frame of 3-12 months out. Longterm picture still excellent. I'd be surprised if they make any concrete guesses (as opposed to vague hopefull comments) about when bookings bottom. So, I have no expectation of anything very good (or very bad) in the the CC, or any strong investor reaction either way.
What is your stop-loss point for your short? |
