Where the Market Money will be made: INDIA before, way before Communist CHINA. You can tell this by companies that have the HIGHEST future GROWTH potential, such as PALM, see for example: bigcharts.com
You can also see the ruin of many a "poor boy" in the "Houses of the Rising Sun", especially CHINA, less so Japan or Korea. For example, qcom despite a recent bump up from its cdma contracts with the communists and chinese communists' empty "promises" to build up their infrastructure; and also the ruin and bankruptcy eventually I beleive of Xerox (wish I could have PARC place, you know Palo Alto research center that brought us AAPL, the mouse, GUI graphics, even the MAC and Windows to name a few); and even HWP likewise on its way to Chinese oblivion.
Remember, there is a lot of IT talent in India, a lot of Media (Bollywood is second only to Hollywood, even France and Britain and Germany and Italy are far behind Bombay for film and multimedia). Most H1B tech visas are granted to India's high tech workers, and guess what, they speak english, the lingua franca of India. This is in stark contrast to and unlike China where every province has a separate language family, thousand of individual languages, and even more dialects, all only connected by the chinese character written calligraphic alphabet-----not a single spoken and written language like English, and thus of less use for global business development and expansion etc, unlike India.
As I watch the high growth companies, and PALM is one, but there are others, they go WHERE THE MONEY ALREADY IS, such as the US, CANADA, EUROPE , AUSTRALIA, NZ, INDIA AND JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA. Losers go to where the money is not, where there are tremendous trade barriers, such as, and foremost among the loser investment nations, slave labor slave trade COMMUNIST CHINA, or subharan AFRICA or the underdeveloped (non-brazil non-venezualian Latin America etc.) As the Greenspan 2nd recession become a global depression, whether or not it does in the US, (I beleive the US economy bottomed as predicted in April) this global depresssion will have tremendous impacts in the former USSR and East Bloc countries, and even the Middle East and Israel and Turkey and Greece unfortunately. Unless Oil prices drops to between $20 TO $25 PER BARREL, which necessary event we are far from at the moment according to OPEC and from reading between the lines and listening between the lines to Dick Cheney's 5 year domestic oil production and energy plan since that is the time it takes to develop new domestic oil sources and bring them to market and refinery distribution to us consumers, who will soon to be paying $3 per gallon for gasoline, which could go as far as $5 in the US by next year if left unchecked.
Meanwhile, I am optimistic that the markets will recover substantially by year end, and Q1 of 2002 is my outside target date, THE IF, SINCE THE WHEN WILL OCCUR AT SOME POINT, (Not IF but WHEN), and ahead of the economy within the next 18 months, if these problems outlined above are resolved...if not, then CHAOS.
On the optimistic recovery side, I see that democratic countries, lets face it, those nations and trading partners part of the Anglo-American market spheres of influence, and that includes India, these nations and market economies will recover or present investment opportunities first, and those companies that are strategically placed WHERE THE MONEY IS ALREADY will prosper way above and beyond that of other companies in the general recovery and high tide that will lift all boats.
I am,
Truly your$,
-Crystal Ball |
