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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 106.93+2.1%3:59 PM EST
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To: Jdaasoc who wrote (70141)5/16/2001 6:18:21 PM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) of 93625
 
Hi Jdaasoc; Back on April 12, 2001, you wrote: "DDR plumneting to about $61 for 128 MB. PC800 also plummiting to $110 for 128 MB on pricewatch. My perdiction is about $80 for RDRAM and about $60 for SDRAM or DDR by summertime."

Here is is mid May and PC2100 128MB is already $40 on pricewatch, with RDRAM around $78:
www.pricewatch.com/1/33/2792-1.htm
pricewatch.com

It sure looks like you overestimated both DDR and RDRAM's price, but where you were more particularly wrong is in the ratio of the RDRAM to DDR price.

On April 12th: $110/$61 = 1.803
You predicted: $ 80/$60 = 1.333
On May 16th:   $ 78/$40 = 1.950


In other words, DDR extended its pricing advantage over RDRAM, while you had predicted that the pricing advantage would decrease.

I think you've failed to understand how cheap DDR is to manufacture, and you have therefore failed to appreciate how quickly it would drop in price. You've also failed to appreciate the effect that the number of suppliers have on the prices of RDRAM and DDR, and you've also failed to appreciate Micron's motivation for deliberately driving DDR prices down, exactly like they announced they would.

-- Carl
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