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Long range strategic planning from the University of Colorado at Boulder
University of Colorado Experts Outline Long-term Energy Factors
Two University of Colorado at Boulder experts who recently presented testimony related to their research on the nation's long-term energy supplies to two Congressional committees are awaiting the announcement of President Bush's energy proposal on May 17.
John D. "Jack" Edwards, former chief geologist of Shell Oil and an adjunct professor of geological sciences at CU-Boulder, outlined his projections of the world's future energy supplies before the staff of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Albert A. Bartlett, professor emeritus of physics, spoke about the need for conservation before the Subcommittee on Energy of the House Science Committee.
"We have a problem and we need to do something about it," said Edwards, who spent 37 years in the oil industry before joining the CU faculty in 1992.
The major factors facing the United State's energy supplies during the coming century include population growth, particularly in developing nations, and increasing demand for fossil fuels in developing countries due to industrialization, Edwards said.
Sometime between 2020 and 2040 the world's demand for oil will outstrip supply, Edwards estimates. "By the time 2030 comes we're going to be competing with everyone else in the world for oil -- and that's when the oil price will jump," he said.
Bartlett, an award-winning teacher who has given his celebrated lecture on "Arithmetic, Population and Energy" 1,412 times since 1969, estimates that peak world oil production could occur as early as 2004.
Oil consumption in the United States is 25 barrels per person per year, Edwards said, the highest in the world. People in other developed countries consume an average of 14.3 barrels and those in developing countries consume 1.9 barrels. Because 98 percent of the world's population growth is occurring in developing countries, rising oil consumption in these nations will have an enormous impact, he noted.
The key role that population growth plays in driving up the demand for energy was a central focus of Bartlett's address to the House Energy Subcommittee. Bartlett stressed that the world's worst population growth problem is in the United States because of its high per capita consumption of oil, and that U.S. energy problems cannot be solved as long as the U.S. population continues to grow. The United States has the highest population growth of any developed nation.
Bartlett called for emphasizing conservation, improving energy efficiency and setting a national goal of continuously reducing the nation's total annual consumption of non-renewable energy. He also called for a planning horizon that addressed the issue of providing renewable energy supplies for decades into the future.
"Our national energy situation is a mess," Bartlett told the subcommittee, because the nation's policy relies primarily "on short-term fixes and on consuming resources as rapidly as possible. "He pointed out that electric generating capacity grew an average of 0.75 percent per year during the 1990s while demand for electricity grew at a rate of 2.1 percent annually, which explains the nation's growing electricity crisis.
Currently, fossil fuels supply 86 percent of the world's energy needs. Edwards recently pushed back his prediction of when world oil demand will outstrip supplies from 2020 to between 2020 and 2040 due to new U.S. Geological Survey estimates of future discoveries and reserve growth in old fields. Unconventional oil in Canadian tar sands and eastern Venezuelan heavy oil also will add to future supplies.
But both Edwards and Bartlett noted that because of population growth, increasing oil reserves by a trillion barrels to an ultimate worldwide total of 4.5 trillion barrels only delays the day when demand outstrips supply by 10 years.
"It's important that people realize that renewable, non-polluting energy sources are what we need to develop," Edwards said. These include solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, biomass and nuclear. He believes that nuclear energy must play a significant role and may provide about 10 percent of world energy needs in the latter half of this century, partly because of concerns over global warming.
Edwards also favors opening new coastal areas for offshore drilling, especially for natural gas, and says the United States also needs to build more power plants, refineries, pipelines and transmission lines. He believes the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge resources should be saved for future emergency use.
"We need to increase the efficiency of all fossil fuel use and increase conservation of all energy sources," Edwards said.
Edwards has a series of CD-ROM charts detailing world energy supplies, world energy consumption and population projections. A videotape of Bartlett's lecture is available by calling 303- 492-4007.
Contact: John Edwards
edwards@emarc.colorado.edu
303-492-6188
Al Bartlett
Albert.Bartlett@colorado.edu
303-443-0595
Additional Contact:
Peter Caughey, 303-492-4007 |
